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In the past decade, Moscow has provoked wars in Georgia and Ukraine and the time may be ripening for opening another front for its proxies in the Balkans. Hence, news of the recent breakthrough after two decades of negotiations between Macedonia and Greece has to be treated with caution at a time when renewed conflict in Bosnia-Herzegovina also lurks on the horizon. Macedonia has now reached a pivotal moment in its history. To help galvanize a positive referendum result, EU leaders will need to give Macedonia the green light for launching accession talks. The opposition VMRO party will likely mount an intensive anti-agreement campaign and various nationalist groups have already started organizing street protests. However, if the parliamentary vote in either Skopje or Athens fails or the deal is rejected in a referendum, Macedonia will have lost a unique opportunity to end its isolation. Zaev may need to call for early elections to buttress his parliamentary support.

Ups skopje


The Greek government also faces domestic resistance to the Macedonia deal. The opposition VMRO party will likely mount an intensive anti-agreement campaign and various nationalist groups have already started organizing street protests. Extensive public protests are expected and this will make it increasingly difficult to push the agreement through parliament. In the past decade, Moscow has provoked wars in Georgia and Ukraine and the time may be ripening for opening another front for its proxies in the Balkans. A stalemated election and failure to form a central government or pass a national budget could become a pretext for the Serb entity to withdraw from all central institutions and declare statehood. However, if the parliamentary vote in either Skopje or Athens fails or the deal is rejected in a referendum, Macedonia will have lost a unique opportunity to end its isolation. Serb Republic President Milorad Dodik has floated the idea of a referendum on separation, but the country could implode even without such a direct provocation. However, the agreement needs to be ratified by the Macedonian and Greek parliaments and through a public referendum in Macedonia. Macedonia has now reached a pivotal moment in its history. Zaev may need to call for early elections to buttress his parliamentary support. EU entry will take much longer, especially as the Union itself remains divided on whether to continue enlarging. In stark contrast, recent proposals for territorial exchanges between the two states could stimulate irredentist ambitions in the region. To help galvanize a positive referendum result, EU leaders will need to give Macedonia the green light for launching accession talks. With the agreement widely praised in Brussels and Washington, international players must focus on encouraging Macedonian voters. The Kremlin promotes regional instability and undermines EU and NATO goals; and at some point, it can intensify its support for Bosnian Serb separatism to fracture the country. Hence, news of the recent breakthrough after two decades of negotiations between Macedonia and Greece has to be treated with caution at a time when renewed conflict in Bosnia-Herzegovina also lurks on the horizon. Storm clouds are also gathering over Bosnia-Herzegovina as the October general elections approach. As a result, a long hot summer is looming, as domestic disputes over the agreement accelerate. This would undercut nationalism and separatism in the country and contribute to stabilizing the wider region. The stalemate between Serbia and Kosova, despite intense U. Russia remains an additional and persistent cause of instability in the western Balkans. In Macedonia, the Social Democrat government has a slender parliamentary plurality and will find it problematic to muster the two-thirds majority necessary to enact constitutional changes. In a worst-case scenario, Serbian separatism would lead to armed clashes between Serbs and Bosniak Muslims, provoking military intervention by Zagreb and Belgrade, with a significant risk of clashes between the two neighbors. If the votes are positive, the country will gain momentum for full international integration.

Ups skopje

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31th World Military Wrestling Championship, Opening Ceremony, 19-25.09.2016, Skopje-Macedonia





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5 thoughts on “Ups skopje”

Negul

09.12.2017 at 10:12 pm
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With the agreement widely praised in Brussels and Washington, international players must focus on encouraging Macedonian voters. This would undercut nationalism and separatism in the country and contribute to stabilizing the wider region.

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